Description

Colombia's agricultural exports had a tough year in 2009. In the first 10 months of the year, coffee export revenues were down 20.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) according to Colombia's statistics agency DANE. This came on the back of the worst coffee harvest in more than three decades. Output in the 2008/09 coffee year, which ended at the end of September 2009, is estimated to have fallen 30.5% y-o-y to 8.70mn tonnes, someway lower than our previous already low forecast. Production was badly damaged by heavy rains through the later months of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Lower fertiliser use due to high prices in 2008 and the continuation of work on rejuvenating plantations also contributed to the drop. In the 2010 coffee year, we now expect production to be low again by recent standards, though considerably higher than in 2009. While too much water was the problem for the 2009 crop, for 2010 the reverse seems likely to be true with the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This could well see rainfall in Colombia's coffee growing areas fall well below the average levels. Coffee exports were not the only product to suffer from the poor economic conditions in 2009. The value of exports of agricultural products excluding coffee fell by 4.2% y-o-y from January to October 2009. The already poor conditions for many agricultural exports in 2009 were worsened by the increasingly vicious spat between Colombia's Álvaro Uribe and President Hugo Chávez of neighbouring Venezuela. In the first 10 months of 2009, the value of Colombian's exports of milk, dairy products, eggs and honey to Venezuela plummeted 72.4% y-o-y, according to DANE. Following Colombia's decision to allow US troops to operate out of Colombian bases in their fight against drug production, Chávez has ratcheted up his rhetoric against Colombia including issuing threats to cut all trade between the two countries. Following the threats, in October 2009, the value of Colombian meat and offal exports to Venezuela fell by a whopping 97.6% y-o-y, while live animal exports dropped by 97.2%. With Venezuelan troops reportedly blowing up foot bridges between the two countries in mid- November, it is likely to be some time before relations between Chávez and Uribe improve and trade returns to full strength. Some good news for Colombia's agriculture industry come from the sugar sector where 2010 is shaping up to be a bumper year. We forecast production in 2009/10 to be well up from the previous year when production was hurt by a cane cutters strike at the start of the year. BMI is forecasting a second consecutive global deficit in sugar production for 2010. With already low stocks going into the year, this should buoy prices in 2010 meaning Colombian millers can expect to get good returns on their exports.

Scope

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