Description

In BMI’s latest quarterly report on the German telecommunications market, we have updated and extended our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line, internet and broadband sectors through to the end of 2014. In the wireline market, there were two major acquisitions in the third quarter of 2009. First, Spanish fixed-line incumbent Telefónica announced that it had acquired German broadband operator HanseNet, which it intends to merge into its German mobile unit Telefónica O2 Germany. Telefónica has extensive experience of operating wireline businesses in Europe and owns the incumbent operations in Spain and the Czech Republic. Its wealth of experience and strategic nous should help drive HanseNet forward in what is becoming an increasingly competitive market. The financial backing that Telefónica will bring to HanseNet will also be of huge advantage as consumers demand increasingly higher quality and advanced services such as high-speed broadband and IPTV. The other major acquisition was Liberty Global Inc (LGI)’s acquisition of Germany’s second largest cable operator Unity Media. Again, LGI brings extensive regional and global experience and strategic expertise as well as powerful financial backing. These developments in the broadband sector should lead to greater competition in the broadband market, particularly for bundled service customers. Demand for double- and triple-services is growing, and with three of the largest broadband operators in the country also being three of the country’s mobile network operators, quadruple-play offers could soon begin to flood the market. Germany’s mobile market growth has slowed considerably during the first three quarters of 2009. The sector contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2009 before expanding by a meagre 0.2% during the second quarter of the year. Growth in the third quarter of the year came to 1.0%. Although we are expecting growth to accelerate slightly in the final quarter in the year, we have significantly scaled back our end of 2009 mobile subscriber base expectations. At the end of 2009, we now anticipate a mobile subscriber base of just under 109.8mn customers and mobile penetration of 133.7%. The sector’s weak performance during 2009 has been heavily impacted by the economic downturn that has affected the German consumer, forcing them to cut back their spending on telecommunications services. Market shares in the mobile sector have been relatively stable over the past few years with the general trend being increasing market shares of the two smallest operators E-Plus and O2 at the expense of the country’s largest operators T-Mobile and Vodafone. At the end of Q309, T-Mobile remained the market leader with a market share of 36.3%, closely followed by Vodafone with 32.1% of the market. E-Plus and O2 saw their market shares increase to 17.3% and 14.2%, respectively.

Scope

• Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German telecommunications market.
• Target Business Opportunities & Risks in Germany's Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
• Exploit Latest Competitive German Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.